Kenya faces fuel shortages as Iran crisis drags on

Kenya is bracing for tighter fuel supplies as disruptions from the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict have severely curtailed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint for much of the world’s oil exports.

The East African nation, which consumes approximately 100,000 barrels of fuel products daily and relies entirely on imports, faces heightened risks of shortages if deliveries continue to falter. Fuel arrives primarily through the port of Mombasa, where the country’s sole refinery has remained idle for years due to economic unviability.

Supply chain under pressure

Major suppliers from the Gulf have rationed products amid the crisis, which erupted late February with coordinated strikes escalating into broader regional attacks. Reports indicate that some distributors are already facing stockouts in rural areas.

“The biggest fuel suppliers to Kenya are rationing product,” Martin Chomba, chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, told Bloomberg. He noted early signs of localized shortages in villages.

Government officials and industry sources have emphasized scrambling for alternatives. While Kenya’s Energy Ministry has assured that current stocks and scheduled imports provide coverage into April 2026, the fluid situation tied to the conflict raises concerns over longer-term stability.

The International Energy Agency’s March Oil Market Report highlights the severity: global oil supply is projected to plunge by eight million barrels per day (mb/d) in March to 98.8 mb/d — the lowest since early 2022 — due to Middle East curtailments, partially offset by gains elsewhere.

Oil prices soar amid geopolitical tensions

Brent crude prices have surged, recently trading around USD100-USD102 per barrel following the disruptions, with peaks nearing USD120 amid uncertainty over resumption of flows. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global seaborne oil and products once passed, has seen transits drop dramatically, stranding tankers and forcing producers to shut in output.

East and southern Africa remain especially exposed, with about 75% of fuel imports historically sourced from the Middle East, according to energy consultancy CITAC.

The crisis underscores broader vulnerabilities across the continent, where refinery closures and underinvestment have left nations dependent on volatile import routes.

Regional and global ripples

Neighboring countries feel similar pressures. Ethiopia has urged fuel conservation, prioritizing essential needs, while South Africa grapples with reduced domestic refining.

In contrast, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery — now operating at full 650,000 barrels per day capacity — stands as a potential regional bright spot, with capabilities to export products and ease some supply strains for neighbors.

Beyond Africa, Asian nations have implemented drastic measures: Sri Lanka declared public holidays to cut consumption, Thailand encouraged lighter clothing to reduce air conditioning use, and others introduced vehicle restrictions, blackouts, and remote work mandates.

The IEA forecasts a supply recovery later in 2026, with an average increase of 1.1 mb/d driven by non-OPEC+ producers, but near-term shocks could curb demand and prolong economic strain.

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